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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.