A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
